Sunday, January 10, 2010

2010 Predictions

We tax all the others and pass the revenue on to you

I made some bold predictions in the first half of '09.  Even got some of 'em right in the face of some skepticism and even derision.  I didn't do much prognosticating in the second half and I wish I had.

Here are some of the things I think we'll see in 2010, in no particular order:

  • California will become an even bigger financial mess, requiring massive bailouts of its bloated entitlement economy.  There won't be a corresponding reduction in those entitlements because that would cost too many CA pols their legislative sinecures.

  • As a predictable result, CA will suffer more arbitrary revenue-generating measures that won't be called taxes... but are.  There will be cut-backs in programs that they have come to take for granted, and increases in programs you've never heard of.

  • Oregon will more and more resemble California.

  • There won't be a significant overhaul of the Tax Code.  It's not much of a vote-getter these days and Congress won't have time or political courage for the hearings.

  • The IRS will receive massive new funding in support of health care but there won't be a corresponding increase in revenue.

  • We'll hear more about mileage taxes to supplement, not replace, gas taxes.

  • There won't be any major Wall Street reforms.

  • Iraq will end in a whimper, spun as a victory.  It will cost nearly as much to prop up their government as when the war was being waged.

  • Afghanistan will suffer at least one major disaster, prompting the prez to convene a committee to "re-think our overall strategy and the price of our commitment."  The phrase "open-ended" will be repeated ad nauseum

  • There will be more than one significant terror attack on American soil.  We will be unprepared and have no meaningful response.

  • Iran will succeed in its nuclear arms development program.  We will not have a cogent response nor will we be able to convene an international one.

  • Russia will resume its role as world bully and we won't push back. [See Ukraine and Georgia.]

  • We will ignore China's offenses to mankind's sensibilities on the grounds that, well, we owe 'em too much money.

  • When unemployment goes back to single digits it will be hailed as a vindication of the administration's economic plans.  The prez's promise that it wouldn't exceed 8% if Congress passed the stimulus bill we be ignored.

  • There will be another stimulus package, even though it might be named something else.  It won't work, either.

  • GM/GMAC and Chrysler will continue to be suppurating sores on the American body.

  • The mid-term elections will be claimed as victories by both parties.  Only the American citizenry will lose.

  • Hugo Chavez succeeds in delivering a death blow to whatever residual freedom still exists in Venezuela.

  • Cap-and-trade will fizzle.  Same for climate change.

  • Oregon goes to the Rose Bowl for the second straight year... and wins this time.

Got any predictions of your own?  Share 'em here

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Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.
Neils Bohr


  1. Jeeze, These are all very gloomy predictions except for the win at the Rose Bowl, of course. I'm struggling to venture at least one other optimistic prediction and failing miserably. I will have to settle for predicting a very warm summer with spectacular results in the garden. Edythe

  2. Prediction for 2010: Oregon Props 66 and 67 will pass, as the "feel good" educators and social service proponents wield their numbers at the ballot box. Course one has to wonder: are they more concerned about the public good, or is it their salary increases and PERS balloon? Perhaps someone will need to remind them why the cost of everything will go up (did they forget that businesses don't pay taxes, consumers pay based on what it costs to produce?).